Europe: vaccination progress will increase reopening pressure despite concerns over virus mutations. Switzerland: a swift recovery starting in the second quarter will lift GDP above pre-crisis levels in 2021. Inflation is rising, with one-off effects in the Eurozone and more underlying price pressure in the US.
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In addition to the traditional macroeconomic analysis, which considers mainly economic variables and political risks, ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) factors focus on a sustainable development and are thus an indicator of a country's long-term stability. Meanwhile, ESG scores from leading data providers correlate only weakly with each other, as the scores are dependent on the factors considered as well as their chosen weightings. To obtain more transparency, we built a proprietary ESG model for developing countries, which allows for a deeper analysis, and serves as a basis for our country selection on the ESG-focused product development side.
