Emerging markets saw a strong start to 2024, supported by falling inflation and lower interest rates. China’s economic measures are insufficient to meet its ambitious growth target. Economic policy uncertainty would increase under President Trump and particularly affect emerging markets.
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Elections are due to be held in more than 60 countries in 2024. In Russia, President Putin has already secured another six-year term – this comes as no surprise, as no significant opponents were permitted. One of the most important upcoming elections in the emerging markets is in India, where the polls are predicting a victory for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Elections are also scheduled for the second quarter of this year in South Korea and South Africa.
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The possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the US presidential election on 5 November raises questions about the potential global economic impact. During his first term as President, Trump’s foreign policy was confrontational and unpredictable, leading to significant economic policy uncertainties. For the emerging markets, the main concerns are renewed trade tensions with China, the impact on the war in Ukraine, Trump’s influence on the ongoing war in Gaza, and the already announced crackdown on immigration.
