Eurozone: further slump in industrial sentiment signals start of winter recession. USA: property market price declines herald a decline in cyclical inflation. China: renewed downward revision of growth prospects in 2023 due to a lack of vaccination progress.
Chart of the month
Bloomberg, the financial news services provider, regularly asks economists to give their assessment of the threat of recession for individual countries. Currently, Germany’s median expected likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months stands at 90%. The assessment for France is stable at 60%, while experts estimate that the risk of recession in the United Kingdom has recently risen sharply. In the case of Switzerland, a soft landing for the economy remains the most likely scenario for the time being. The sentiment shown in the graph is broadly in line with our own assessment on the following pages.